🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”