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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.