Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
